By Vijay Jayaraj
A few hundred years ago, coffee was almost an unknown commodity with hardly a handful of countries consuming it at a commercial scale. But today, it is a sought-after drink that drives multiple companies to compete for the world’s best beans.
An estimated 21 billion pounds of green coffee are produced annually across more than 25 million acres worldwide. U.S., Brazil, and Japan are the top coffee-consuming countries.
Though late to the caffeinated party, China is now driving global demand. In the 2023-2024 crop year, China’s consumption reached nearly six million 60-kilogram bags, while domestic production stood at less than two million bags. The balance was imported.
But will this global java joy be interrupted by production shortfalls caused by climate change? A simple Google search will yield thousands of news articles about how a warming world is killing Arabica and Robusta coffee beans.
I am currently based in India where tea is king. But coffee consumption is on the rise and could soon reach levels seen in Scandinavia, Canada, and Indonesia. Coincidentally, I am writing this from a city just few hours away from the largest coffee-growing region in the country.
Indian coffee traders say that the impact of climate change “is minimal for now.”
“There have been difficulties in terms of water (and) temperatures, but (they have) not affected production majorly because (they are) not something new,” says Suhas Dwarkanath of Benki Coffee.
This was confirmed by India’s Commerce Ministry, which has allayed fears about weather disruptions and projects higher coffee output for 2024-25. The Indian Coffee Board has set a 10-year road map for doubling the country’s coffee production and exports.
While focusing on weather impacts, analysts and media often overlook other factors that can significantly influence coffee crops.
Colombia, for example, has experienced important benefits from improved agronomic practices. In fact, the coffee crops have benefited from adaptation to changing climate and enhanced pest-control methods. These two factors have been credited for Columbia’s record 2024 production of coffee beans, which is expected to be as much as 20% higher than the previous year’s.
Likewise, Brazil has seen an increase of 32% in production this year. Brazil contributes over a third of the global coffee supply and is the primary producer of Arabica beans, making up approximately 75% of the world’s coffee production.
Coffee Under Worst Case Scenario
It is important to note that most of the fear surrounding a rise in future temperatures is based on erroneous climate models that are currently being used for forecasting. These models are notorious for glaring errors, including the exaggeration of greenhouse gases’ warming effect and the failure to account for other causes of warming.
Even if temperatures do rise significantly, coffee production can be moved to cooler locales at higher altitudes and at latitudes farther from the equator. For instance, conducive to growing both Arabica and Robusta are Southern California and alternative regions in existing coffee-producing countries like Brazil and India.
In Colombia, researchers modeled “climate suitability and crop-yield for current and future climate scenarios” and included factors such as soil constraints, pest infestation and socio-economic elements. They found that the “foothills along the eastern Andean Mountain ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region and the wet parts of the Caribbean region” are highly favorable to growing coffee if average temperature were to increase.
In Ethiopia — one of the world’s largest coffee producers — climate change was found to increase the suitable growing area by as much as 44% by 2080.
Likewise, the plateaus in China’s Yunnan Province are expected to have acreage suitable for growing coffee increase significantly in scenarios assuming future warming.
None of this takes into account improved coffee hybrids that can increase yields by 30-60%. Researchers have now found that these varieties have greater resistance to climatic changes and to pests.
I think it is safe to say that our coffee supply is secure for the foreseeable future. So, the next time you hear that the emissions of your internal combustion engine are endangering your morning cup of joe, take it with a grain of salt — or perhaps with a cup of salted caramel cappuccino.
This commentary was first published at American Thinker on January 13, 2025.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.
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