By Ryan Hanrahan
Reuters’ Karen Braun reported Wednesday that “most global importers last year took advantage of plentiful and cheaper U.S. bulk agricultural commodities, including soybeans and corn, the top-ticket items.”
“Milestones were notched among the top U.S. bulk grain destinations in 2024 as average export prices fell by more than one-fifth versus 2023,” Braun reported. “Lower prices meant this group of commodities pulled in 5% less revenue than a year earlier, but the quantity was up significantly according to U.S. Census Bureau data published on Wednesday.”
“By volume, U.S. bulk agricultural exports in 2024 surged 22% on the year, the biggest annual rise in a decade. Tonnages to No. 2 Mexico and No. 4 Colombia smashed records, rising 29% and 20% above the previous highs, respectively,” Braun reported. “Bulk exports to No. 3 Japan and No. 5 South Korea were up 43% and 107% on the year, respectively, with those volumes reaching six- and three-year highs. These four countries accounted for 44% of the total exported volume.”
“China was narrowly the largest destination for U.S. bulk exports last year, accounting for 24% of the total, though the volume was down 5% on the year. This marked a five-year low, but excluding trade war years, it was an 11-year low,” Braun reported. “The trend with China is a bit unsettling following this week’s tariff escalation. However, heavier involvement from other importers is a positive sign, especially as some industry participants have feared some markets might be weaning off U.S. agriculture, especially other Asian destinations.”
Export Values Up Marginally from 2023, Down in Soybeans and Wheat
“By value, U.S. agricultural and related product exports totaled $191 billion in 2024, up fractionally from 2023. That is the third-largest on record in nominal dollar terms, down from 2022’s high of $213 billion,” Braun reported. “Canada, which along with China and Mexico comprise the top three markets for U.S. agriculture, was the leading destination for U.S. farm goods in 2024. The three countries accounted for $91 billion or 48% of U.S. agricultural exports last year, and that percentage share is consistent with the previous three years.”
“Although bulk commodity prices were down in 2024, export prices for other top farm goods were higher on the year and pulled in more revenue versus 2023 despite mixed trends in volumes,” Braun reported. “Prices for beef, pork, tree nuts and dairy products all rose on the year, grossing $37 billion in exports, some 19% of the total. These four commodities were among the top seven farm exports along with corn, soybeans and forest products.”
“Aside from Mexico and Colombia, U.S. farm export values last year reached at least decade-high – if not record – levels to the United Kingdom, India, the Dominican Republic and Guatemala, to name a few,” Braun reported.
Ag Export Outlook for Fiscal Year 2025
The USDA’s Economic Research Service reported in November 2024 that “U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 are forecast at $170.0 billion, up $500 million from the August forecast. This projection is primarily driven by increases in livestock and dairy exports.”
“Beef exports are projected $400 million higher to $8.8 billion as higher volumes offset lower unit values. Dairy exports are raised $300 million to $8.4 billion based on increased U.S. price competitiveness for a number of products. Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to increase by $700 million to $39.3 billion,” the USDA ERS said. “Grain and feed exports are forecast at $36.5 billion, up $200 million from the August forecast, as higher exports of corn and sorghum more than offset moderately lower wheat and feed and fodder exports.”
“Oilseed and product exports are projected at $33.5 billion, down $500 million due to lower soybean and peanut volumes,” the ERS said. “Cotton exports are forecast down $200 million to $4.3 billion due to lower volumes. The forecast for ethanol exports is lowered by $100 million to $4.2 billion, as falling export unit values offset slightly higher volumes.”
“Exports to Mexico, the top U.S. agricultural market, are forecast $700 million higher from the August projection to $29.9 billion, driven by continued robust demand for a range of products. The export forecast for Canada is $300 million higher to a record-high $29.2 billion, supported by a strong economic outlook,” the ERS reported. “Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $23.3 billion, down $700 million from the August projection.”
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