The Week That Was: 2025 03-01 (March 1, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The scientist has a lot of experience with ignorance and doubt and uncertainty, and this experience is of very great importance, I think. When a scientist doesn’t know the answer to a problem, he is ignorant. When he has a hunch as to what the result is, he is uncertain. And when he is pretty damn sure of what the result is going to be, he is still in some doubt. Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty — some most unsure, some nearly sure, but none absolutely certain.” — Richard Feynman, “The Value of Science,” address to the National Academy of Sciences (Autumn 1955)
Number of the Week: About 18%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW will continue with questioning whether climate science is a physical science. TWTW begins with a discussion of the Greenhouse Effects as presented by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Then TWTW presents Roy Spencer’s view of the EPA’s Endangerment Finding. Also presented is Howard Hayden’s essay on the effect of subsidies for wind and solar. TWTW concludes with a brief mention of Willie Soon’s Climate Doom and a bold new, synthesized fuel by Shell Oil.
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The Greenhouse Effect – NIST: The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is one of the premier scientific organizations in the US government. According to its website:
“Researchers at NIST—including five Nobel Prize winners—have been at the forefront of science in the nation’s premier measurement institute for more than 120 years. Their groundbreaking research happens in six labs and user facilities.”
https://www.nist.gov/laboratories
The laboratories are Communications, Engineering, Information Technology, Material Measurement, Neutron Research, and Physical Measurement. According to the website:
“The Physical Measurement Laboratory (PML) is a world leader in the science of measurement. We set the definitive U.S. standards for nearly every kind of measurement employed in commerce and research, provide NIST-traceable calibrations, and disseminate standards and best practices throughout the nation.”
Since it is a world leader in the science of measurement, one would assume NIST gives accurate measurements of the greenhouse effect.
Under the heading, “How Do You Measure Greenhouse Gases?” the (easy to understand) NIST website states:
The short answer
“Each greenhouse gas absorbs specific colors of light, creating a unique ‘fingerprint’ that can be used to detect it in the atmosphere. To determine the concentration of a particular gas, scientists study light that has passed through air and measure how much light is missing at colors uniquely absorbed by that gas.”
The website explains:
“They’re invisible and odorless yet all around us. They float in the air in tiny amounts yet have profound impacts on our world. The challenge of reducing their concentrations has given rise to global treaties, billions of dollars in government and corporate spending and impassioned political debates.
They’re greenhouse gases — a coterie of airborne molecules that trap light radiating from Earth’s surface, warming the planet, and making extreme weather more likely and destructive. So serious is the global warming problem that in 1994, the nations of the world committed themselves to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations ‘at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system.’ [Boldface added]
Yet 30 years later, the world is still struggling to rein in these troublesome gases.” [Boldface added]
The website gives graphs of CO2, N2O, Methane and various Fluorinated gases and lists the “Global warming potential” and the “Concentration in the atmosphere” of each. Then it goes on to explain:
“A Unique ‘Fingerprint’
That feature is the fact that gas molecules absorb light. Indeed, all objects, from tiny molecules to massive stars and planets, absorb and radiate light.
But the colors — or light wavelengths — that different gases and objects radiate and absorb can vary dramatically. The Sun, with a broiling-hot surface temperature of around 5,600 degrees Celsius (10,000 degrees Fahrenheit), radiates most strongly at relatively short wavelengths of hundreds of nanometers — or billionths of a meter. These are colors of light we can see.
Even as sunlight warms the Earth, our planet remains much cooler than the Sun and radiates entirely in infrared light. Infrared light has wavelengths longer than 1 micrometer (millionths of a meter) that we can’t see — at least not without special goggles.
Greenhouse gas molecules absorb some of this infrared light, warm up and then transfer heat to other molecules in the atmosphere through collisions. The warmed atmosphere also radiates infrared light. Some of this radiation heads out to space, but some goes toward Earth, warming the planet’s surface further.
Overall, this warming is a good thing: Without any greenhouse effect, Earth’s surface would be frigid, with an average temperature of minus 18 degrees Celsius (zero degrees Fahrenheit) — and life as we know it would not exist! [Boldface added]
But the greenhouse effect becomes too much of a good thing when we add a lot of heat-trapping molecules to the atmosphere. Most of these molecules are carbon dioxide, which is emitted when coal, oil and gas are burned for energy; some carbon dioxide also comes from burning forests and soil that is plowed or disturbed for agriculture. Methane is emitted mainly from livestock, oil and gas wells and pipelines, landfills, and wetlands; nitrous oxide comes from farm fields and factories; and fluorinated gases leak from cooling equipment.
Each type of greenhouse gas molecule absorbs a unique set of light wavelengths, creating a sort of spectral fingerprint. Just as your fingerprint can identify you among the billions of people on Earth, the absorption spectra of molecules can be used to identify them, thanks to a set of powerful techniques known collectively as spectroscopy.”
The website gives graphs for CH4 (methane), N20 (nitrous oxide), CO2 (carbon dioxide), and Total Atmosphere. The vertical axis is labeled Absorbance, and the horizonal axis is labeled Wavelengths (microns). The caption under the graphs reads:
“‘Spectral fingerprints’ of the most important greenhouse gases, and the absorption spectrum of the atmosphere as a whole. (In addition to gases that humans emit, water vapor is an important, naturally occurring greenhouse gas that absorbs infrared radiation from Earth’s surface.) To measure a particular gas, scientists choose a light wavelength that only that gas absorbs — 4.26 microns for carbon dioxide, for example. ‘Absorbance’ means the fraction of infrared light absorbed by a gas at a particular wavelength.
Credit: Data generated and visualized by Adam Fleisher/NIST”
The website than states:
“These techniques involve allowing infrared light to pass through air — essentially mimicking the planet’s radiation — then collecting the light with a detector. Because each gas absorbs light at specific wavelengths, scientists can use the amount of light detected at those wavelengths to determine how much of each gas is present.”
It is only in the caption that we see what is missing in the main article:
(In addition to gases that humans emit, water vapor is an important, naturally occurring greenhouse gas that absorbs infrared radiation from Earth’s surface.)
Yet, water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas. John Tyndall began his experiments using spectroscopy in 1859 to find out why the Earth is warm enough to support life and recognized the importance of water vapor when he wrote about his experiments in 1874. The NIST graph for the Total Atmosphere shows an enormous range in which the “missing” greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation that is not shown in the graphs of the three main “human emitted” gases: CO2, N2O, and CH4. According to the graphs, the absorption of infrared by the total atmosphere is far greater than that by the total of the three listed gases.
Further, water vapor reduces the temperature effectiveness of CO2, N2O and CH4. Thus, to make calculations of the global warming potential of these gases without including water vapor is misleading.
Humans emit water vapor from power plants, irrigation, automobiles, etc. In fact, as explained by Global Climate Modeling pioneer Tim Palmer, modelers double the calculated influence of carbon dioxide by adding water vapor. Such is the status of government sponsored climate science: ignore that which is most important until needed, then fudge a number. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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The Endangerment Finding: One of the most reprehensible actions of the US EPA is declaring that human emitted greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare, the Endangerment Finding. The primary focus is carbon dioxide, without which humanity would not exist. Carbon dioxide and water vapor, the primary greenhouse gas, are essential for photosynthesis. Photosynthesis yields carbohydrates, the food source for all complex plant and animal life. Even Al Gore would not survive on a diet of only chemo-synthesizing bacteria.
The Trump Administration has instructed the EPA to reevaluate the Endangerment Finding. A number of commentators have produced a flurry of essays encouraging this. The best TWTW has reviewed is by Roy Spencer, the co-discoverer of using satellite data for calculating atmospheric temperature trends – the only global temperature trends existing. In his post on his website, “Reasons Why Regulating CO2 Emissions Needs to be Reconsidered,” Spencer writes:
“Today, the Washington Post is reporting that the EPA Administrator is considering recommending to the White House that the EPA’s 2009 CO2 Endangerment Finding be rescinded. Let’s look at a few of the reasons why this might be a good thing to consider.
The Science
The science of human-caused climate change is much more uncertain than you have been led to believe. The globally averaged surface temperature of Earth seems to have warmed by 1 deg. C or so in the last century. The magnitude of the warming remains uncertain with a 30% range in different thermometer-based datasets, and considerably weaker warming in global ‘reanalysis’ datasets using all available data types. But whatever the level of warming, it might well be mostly human-caused.
But we don’t really know.[Boldface italics in original]
As I keep pointing out, the global energy imbalance caused by increasing human-caused CO2 emissions (yes, I believe we are the cause) is smaller than the accuracy with which we know natural energy flows in the climate system. This means recent warming could be mostly natural and we would never know it. [Boldface italics in original]
I’m not claiming that is the case, only that there are uncertainties in climate science that are seldom if ever discussed. The climate models that are the basis for future projections of climate change are adjusted (fudged?) so that increasing CO2 is the only cause of warming. The models themselves do not have all of the necessary physics (mostly due to cloud process uncertainties) to determine whether our climate system was in a state of equilibrium before CO2 was increasing. (And, no, I don’t believe the warming caused the oceans to outgas more CO2 — that effect is very small compared to the size of the human source).
As most readers here are aware, for many years I’ve been saying the science of ‘climate change’ has been corrupted by big government science budgets, ideological worldview biases, and groupthink. Even my career has depended upon Congress being convinced the issue is worthy of big budgets.
It is almost impossible for new science to be published in the peer-reviewed literature that in any way runs counter to the current narrative which states that humans are causing a ‘climate crisis’ from our CO2 emissions, a natural consequence of fossil fuel burning. That ‘peer review’ is now in the hands of climate scientists whose research careers depend upon continuing government funding. If the ‘problem’ of global warming were to be much less than previously believed, funding for that research could dry up.
The most alarmist science papers are the ones that get all of the press, which then get exaggerated and misrepresented by the news media. As a result, the public has a very skewed perception of what scientists really know.
As Roger Pielke, Jr. has been pointing out for many years, even the IPCC’s official reports do not claim that our greenhouse gas emissions have caused changes in severe weather. Every severe weather event in the news is now dutifully tied in some inferential way to human causation, but with public opinion of mainstream news outlets at an all-time low, fewer and fewer people take those news reports seriously. Severe weather has always existed and always will. Storm damages have increased only because of increasing infrastructure and everyone wanting to live on the coast.
And about the only clear, long-term change I’m aware of is a 50% decline in strong to violent tornadoes since the 1950s.
But you would never know of any good climate news if your main source of information is Al Gore’s books, your favorite environmental think tank (that you contribute to so you can get their yearly calendar), or the mainstream media.
Costs vs. Benefits
If there was no cost to replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy, I might be a little more supportive of regulations which choose winners and losers, rather than letting the marketplace decide. But everything humans do requires energy, and so human flourishing depends upon abundant and affordable energy. We in the developed world might have excess wealth to spend on pricey new forms of energy (although our rapidly increasing national debt argues we don’t have excess wealth to squander), but most of the world’s poor continue to struggle to pay for energy we have in relative abundance… if they even have access to it.
The 2009 Endangerment Finding
The Supreme Court has ruled that CO2 falls under the EPA’s Clean Air Act, and so EPA would need to regulate it if it were considered a threat to human health and welfare. Which it did in 2009.
But this ‘threat to human health and welfare’ business cuts both ways.
For example, I could argue that most premature human deaths are caused, indirectly, by what we eat (or don’t eat). The incidence of obesity and related illnesses continues to rise. So, given the threat of food to human and welfare, why not just outlaw food? Food is a threat to human health and welfare, too. [Boldface italics in original]
Clearly, we don’t do that because food is necessary for life. But so is CO2.
CO2 is required for photosynthesis, which in turn is required for the food chain on land and in the oceans. NASA-based satellite measurements since the 1980s have documented global greening from increasing CO2. It has been estimated global agricultural productivity has increased by trillions of dollars from crops growing better, with more drought resistance, in a CO2-enriched atmosphere.
I’ve read the technical support document for the 2009 EF. It is full of gloom and doom. Any benefits to more CO2 are downplayed while costs are trumpeted. Its authorship appears to have been heavily influenced by environmental activists, most of whom have their own agendas. Much of the science in it now sounds more like Al Gore’s original alarmist book Earth In The Balance (which referenced me but couldn’t get my science contributions right) than a balanced assessment of the science of climate change. [Boldface italics in original]
Fifteen years since the 2009 Endangerment Finding, we now know much more. None of the scary scenarios originally predicted have actually come to pass, or at a minimum they were greatly exaggerated. Ten-year deadlines to ‘do something’ about the ‘climate crisis’ have come and gone since this mess started in the 1980s… a few times over. Even the IPCC (which only allows alarmist-leaning scientists to participate) has admitted it is unlikely we will experience significant changes in severe weather by the year 2100 that can be tied to increasing CO2.
It makes sense to now reconsider the Endangerment Finding. Let the free market (including consumer preferences) decide which forms of energy we use.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy, for several other views on the Endangerment Finding see links under EPA and other Regulators on the March.
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Energy Schemes: In his February edition of “The Energy Advocate” AMO physicist Howard Hayden has an essay explaining why wind and solar generation, which are very unreliable, are growing in many countries, including the US. In “Big Surprise!” Hayden writes [citations omitted here]”
“Reward some behavior, and you get more of it. Everybody who has been paying attention has noticed that wind and solar have been highly subsidized. Unsurprisingly, we now have more of it.
Since the advent of the so called ‘climate crisis,’ supposedly caused by ‘carbon emissions’ (correctly, carbon dioxide, CO2, a product of combustion) coal has been regarded as a villain because it emits more CO2 per unit energy produced than do either natural gas or petroleum. In a mere 20 years, the amount of electricity produced by coal has dropped by about 60%.
Two things have promoted the growth of natural gas. (1) It produces less CO2 than coal, for any given amount of energy produced; in today’s intellectual climate, that is regarded as a climate-saving virtue; and (2) large natural-gas/combined cycle power plants are about 60% efficient, versus coal which uses a steam cycle at about 35% efficiency.
Solar and wind are considered ‘natural’ energy sources, although there is nothing unnatural about coal, oil, natural gas, or uranium. They are also considered ‘cheap’ because we don’t have to buy sunlight or wind. However, the cheap designation is faulty because of the unreliability of sunlight and wind. Can you buy one kilowatt-hour of midnight solar energy for $1 million? Solar energy is cheap only when sunlight is strong. Wind energy is cheap only when wind speed is high. The rest of the time, solar and wind are very expensive, and the more renewable energy is involved, the higher is the price to the consumer.
Suppose that a utility of yore invested in a power station fired by coal. Their investment was based on an expectation that the station would provide constant baseload power around the clock. Later, they added 100MW (nameplate) of wind turbines (with no subsidies) spread out over about 30 square miles (78 km2). The utility’s job is to produce (say) a steady 1 GW around the clock. In strong winds, they now produce 900 MW from coal and 100 MW from wind, but they still get the same amount of payment for 1 GW. They have lower fuel costs, but they also must pay for the wind installation and their coal station is generating less revenue.
Presumably, their maintenance costs are also larger now that they have about 30 square miles (80 km2) of wind turbines to look after. Another problem they face is that wind power can be highly variable over short times, and the power station must compensate for wind fluctuations by increasing and decreasing power from the coal units. Since they use steam turbines, there is a lot of thermal inertia to contend with—it takes a while to heat and cool the steam, and the rapid ups and downs reduce overall efficiency.
Needless to say, the engineering calculations involve a lot of what-ifs, and we pretend no expertise here. Perhaps the wind installation works to the advantage of the utility and perhaps not. But suppose that the utility has its coal-fired plant, and the government strongly subsidizes a local wind farm installed by somebody else. Now the utility has to bear additional costs without the benefit of the ‘free’ energy supplied by the wind.
In the auction process (occurring every five minutes), all producers offer certain amounts of power at some price. The transmission & distribution (T&D) company takes all the power from the lowest bidder, and some of the power from the highest bidder, but pays all of them the rate of the highest bidder. Therefore, the owners of the wind array get preferential treatment by making low-ball bids for their ‘free’ electricity but get paid the same as the utility gets.”
Hayden’s essay goes to the folly of two Oxford professors claiming in the Wall Street Journal that “The Clean Energy Revolution Is Unstoppable.” They begin there essay with:
“History shows that technology transitions often need a kick-start from government. This can take the form of support for basic and high-risk research, purchases that help new technologies reach scale, investment in infrastructure and policies that create stability for private capital. Such government actions have played a critical role in virtually every technological transition, from railroads to automobiles to the internet.”
They claim that “The Trump administration is determined to promote fossil fuels, but the economic and technological forces driving solar, wind and other sources are now too powerful to resist.” But the professors do not address how powerful are these “economic and technological forces” when government subsidies stop. The subsidy-driven scheme will probably implode. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.
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Climate Doom: Astrophysicist Willie Soon has an amusing video on sea level rise. Although TWTW may not agree that the rise stopped during the Little Ice Age, the estimates are so uncertain that TWTW’s position cannot be asserted with certainty. See Atlantis, “Sea Levels and Climate Doom – Dr Willie Soon: Time Traveller” under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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The New Other Fuel? Shell Oil issued “Shell LNG Outlook, 2025” It asserts that contrary to other claims Natural Gas will be in great demand in the future. In the report, on page 9 there is a schematic on how Shell will meet this great demand in the future by using Liquid Synthetic Gas (LSG), “LSG: using existing LNG infrastructure to achieve net zero: Can deliver the energy to supply all industrial demand in USA & Japan.” The scheme goes as follows:
Surplus renewable energy will be used for electrolysis to separate Hydrogen from oxygen in water. The hydrogen will undergo Methanation by adding CO2 from industry, and direct air capture. This new methane will be exported as liquified natural gas (LNG) and used by consumers of all types.
Of course, little details such as costs are missing. For example, who pays to build the surplus renewable electricity and the direct air capture of CO2? But in the EU dream of Net Zero, anything is possible. See links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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Number of the Week: About 18%: AAAS Science Advances published another paper on the dangers of global warming. This one asserts: “Ambient outdoor heat and accelerated epigenetic aging among older adults in the US.” According to Wikipedia: “In biology, epigenetics is the study of heritable traits, or a stable change of cell function, that happen without changes to the DNA sequence.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetics
The article in The Hill provides some detail:
To unravel this link, the researchers combed through data of more than 3,600 participants aged 56 and older in the University of Michigan’s Health and Retirement Study, which surveys the health of a representative sample of more than 20,000 older Americans.
So, based on selecting about 3600 participants in a survey of 20,000 older people probably beyond childbearing years, the researchers found that outdoor heat -affects the heritable traits of older people. The aging process is complex and involves many gene expressions that could be affected. If that is the case, it is not about heritable traits appearing in people who can produce offspring, but those who cannot produce offspring. Is this another example of cherry-picking?
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Interview with Prof. William Happer – Climate Scare Is Based on Lies
“There is really no threat from increasing CO2 or any of the other minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It’s all a made-up scare story.”
By Robert Malone, MD, His Blog, Feb 27, 2025
https://www.malone.news/p/interview-with-prof-william-happer?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=583200&post_id=158058368&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=dgq6y&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Video and Text
Natural Science and Earth’s Climate – IPCC: Facts or Fiction?
Emeritus Professor Cornelis de Lange, ICSF & CLINTEL, Recorded Feb 26, 2025
Video: Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Som9IKpnn4a0QrKeMqO4vCDDaFq6HKmn/edit?pli=1#slide=id.p1
How the “scientific consensus” on climate change was invented
By Staff, CERES-Science, Accessed Feb 27, 2025
Video: From Climate The Movie (2024)
Featuring Astrophysicists Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas
Reasons Why Regulating CO2 Emissions Needs to be Reconsidered
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Feb 26, 2025
Big Surprise!
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, The Energy Advocate, February 2025
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Big Surprise.docx
Atlantis, Sea Levels and Climate Doom – Dr Willie Soon: Time Traveller
Video featuring Willie Soon, Gorilla Science, Accessed Feb 27, 2025
Has the world’s sea ice reached a tipping point?
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Feb 26, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/has-the-worlds-sea-ice-reached-a-tipping-point
Link to paper: The Ronne Ice Shelf survived the last interglacial
By Eric W. Wolff, et al., Nature, Feb 24, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08394-w
From the abstract: However, direct evidence about the size of WAIS [West Antarctic Ice Sheet] in the LIG [last interglacial] is sparse. Here we use sea salt data from an ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, adjacent to WAIS, to show that, during most of the LIG, the Ronne Ice Shelf was still in place, and close to its current extent.
Defending the Orthodoxy
How Do You Measure Greenhouse Gases?
By Staff, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Updated Jan 7, 2025, Accessed Feb 25, 2025
https://www.nist.gov/how-do-you-measure-it/our-world/how-do-you-measure-greenhouse-gases
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Extreme heat may be accelerating aging in older adults: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 28, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5169453-aging-extreme-heat-climate-change-study
Link to paper: Ambient outdoor heat and accelerated epigenetic aging among older adults in the US
By Eun Young Choi and Jennifer Ailshire, AAAS Science Advances, Feb 26, 2025
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adr0616
From article; To unravel this link, the researchers combed through data of more than 3,600 participants aged 56 and older in the University of Michigan’s Health and Retirement Study, which surveys the health of a representative sample of more than 20,000 older Americans.
[SEPP Comment: Why look at less than 18% of the sample?]
The Seventh Carbon Budget
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2025
Link to Report: The Seventh Carbon Budget: Advice for the UK Government
This statutory report provides advice to the UK Government on the level of the Seventh Carbon Budget (2038 to 2042)
Presented to the Secretary of State pursuant to Section 34 of the Climate Change Act 2008.
By many participants, Climate Change Committee (CCC), Feb 26, 2025
Large parts of the UK’s service-based economy will see little impact, but for some, for example in oil and gas and some parts of farming, there will be significant change. Government needs to engage with affected communities to develop proactive, funded plans to support those affected.
[SEPP Comment: Unreliable electricity will not impact the service-based economy?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Earth’s Energy Imbalance – Part II
By Kevin Kilty, WUWT, Feb 24, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Exploring the uncertainty of climate feedbacks.]
What Really Sets The Global Climate State?
By Kirby Schlaht, WUWT, Feb 22, 2025
Milankovitch cycles and cold feedback loops. Does not explain the Great Shift though. Why did the periodicity of the glacial-interglacial cycle change from 41k years to 120k years around a million years ago? The 41k year obliquity cycle seems to predominate in the early Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycle – for 2 million years. What changed? Further, what had set the earth’s climate to oscillate in the first place?
[SEPP Comment: The closing of the Caribbean Seaway is the answer given by geologists. It closed the flow of the equatorial current from the Atlantic to the Pacific.]
Unsettled Science: The Alarmists Want More Money (nope, time’s up)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Feb 26, 2025
Climate Council: If The World Follows Trump’s Climate Lead, Australia will Have More Beach Weather
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 27, 2025
After Paris!
Trump Policy Will Embolden Developing World to Reject Climate Agenda
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Wire, Feb 20, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://realclearwire.com/articles/2025/02/20/trump_policy_will_embolden_developing_world_to_reject_climate_agenda_1092843.html
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Biomass response of Chrysanthemum to rising CO2 levels
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
From the CO2Science Archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China is so committed to Net Zero last year it started building 95 Gigawatts of coal plants
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 26, 2025
Seeking a Common Ground
Trump Cuts U.S. Scientists Loose from IPCC Report: Climate Juggernaut Takes a Hit
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 22, 2025
NOAA Personnel Cuts Are A Mistake and Must Be Reversed
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 28, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/02/noaa-personnel-cuts-are-mistake-and.html
The simplistic, mindless cutting of new employees is not the way to deal with NOAA’s problems.
Instead, the new administration needs to gather a group of topical experts and users to identify the problems and to propose cost-effective solutions. Importantly, it needs to immediately reverse the position terminations until a rational, fact-based plan is ready.
We can have a more effective NOAA and probably spend less money, but this can only be done with knowledge of its strengths, weaknesses, and potential.
Is Climate Change Killing Australia’s Beachfront Norfolk Island Pines?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 27, 2025
Local governments love them because their strong root structure stabilizes the beach.
Million-dollar beachfront property owners not so much – because that beautiful view you fell in love with, in many cases has been obscured by tree hugging councils who seem to think taller is better.
Models v. Observations
New Study: Ocean Warming Is Supposed To Increase Water Vapor – But It’s Been Declining Since 2008
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 24, 2025
Link to one paper: Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models
By Isla R. Simpson, et al., PNAS, Dec 26, 2023
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2302480120#sec-4
Link to second paper: Recent Decline in Global Ocean Evaporation Due To Wind Stilling
By Ning Ma, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 19, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL114256
New Study Reveals Unexpected Decline in Ocean Evaporation Amid Rising Sea Temperatures
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 24, 2025
Link to paper: Recent Decline in Global Ocean Evaporation Due To Wind Stilling
By Ning Ma, Yongqiang, and Zhang, Yuting Yang, Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 19, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL114256
[SEPP Comment: Further discussion on the Ma et al. paper]
Changing Weather
Why do Atmospheric Rivers Occur?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 22, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/02/why-do-atmospheric-rivers-occur.html
NOAA weather satellites can sense the water vapor, which is very evident in the water vapor image from this morning. A massive plume of water vapor is moving our way.
Sensational Findings Published in Nature Blow Politicized Wildfire Climate Scam Out of the Water
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 22, 2025
Link to paper: A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned
By Sean Parks, et al., Nature Communications, Feb 10, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56333-8
Where are the wildfires of yesteryear?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
Forest fire scientists use the concept of a “fire deficit” to describe a situation in which, however many fires are observed, there aren’t as many as nature would normally arrange. So with all the discussion of wildfire risk associated with global warming we could ask if there’s a fire deficit or its opposite, a fire surplus.
EU Wildfire Trends 2024
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 23, 2025
[SEPP Comment: According to Homewood’s graph, no net change since 1980, down in 2024. Homewood gives the sources for the data.]
#LookItUp: U.S. wildfires
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
Changing Seas
Shh, don’t tell the children sea levels were higher
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 28, 2025
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Greenland About To Collapse
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 28, 2025
The surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains an average of 370 billion tons of ice per year. Most years since 2017 it has gained more ice than average, and the only year it was significantly below was 2019.
Moving Glacially
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 23, 2025
… the Aletsch Glacier [the Alps] is still retreating. However, having said that, the Aletsch Glacier is 23,000 meters long. So, if it continues losing 10 meters per year, by the year 2050 it will lose 1% of its length. Again, not seeing the huge downside here.
Lowering Standards
Climate Tampering Crisis
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 28, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Uses “adjustments” by NOAA.]
NOAA’s Homogenized Temperature Records: A Statistical House of Cards?
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 25, 2025
Link to paper: Evaluation of the Homogenization Adjustments Applied to European Temperature Records in the Global Historical Climatology Network Dataset
By Peter O’Neill, et al., Atmosphere, Feb 8, 2022
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/2/285
From Abstract: Therefore, while the PHA [“Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm”] remains a useful tool in the community’s homogenization toolbox, many of the PHA adjustments applied to the homogenized GHCN dataset may have been spurious.
Tampering With Temperature Records In Netherlands
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 23, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
False, Forbes, Climate Change Is Not Threatening Food Security
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 26, 2025
Factchecking “BBC Verify’s” Energy Bill Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 26, 2025
The headline alone gives a hint that the article itself is a pile of misleading rubbish!
A more suitable headline would have been “Energy bills are going up because there is more green power”.
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
Although we at CDN remain resolutely opposed to geoengineering paranoia, as to all conspiracy theories, we do note that climate alarmists are working hard to make the geoengineering one reasonable. For instance, the Washington Post chortles about “How an antacid for the ocean could cool the Earth”. As if humans have the power and wisdom to turn the oceans into something different and better. Humans who in many cases could not unclog a sink without professional assistance.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate Censorship? (CAAD pushing on a string)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 27, 2025
A new international group, Climate Action Against Disinformation (CAAD), advertises itself as the policer against “climate change misinformation and disinformation.”
Nothing subjective about it. CAAD’s “Universal definition” is stated:
“Climate disinformation and misinformation refers to deceptive or misleading content that:
Undermines the existence or impacts of climate change, the unequivocal human influence on climate change, and the need for corresponding urgent action according to the IPCC scientific consensus and in line with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement;
Misrepresents scientific data, including by omission or cherry-picking, in order to erode trust in climate science, climate-focused institutions, experts, and solutions; or…” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: The IPCC and the Paris Agreement are built on cherry picking. CAAD accuses others of doing what it promotes.]
Follow the economics
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
One of the oddities of climate alarmism is that, despite its mantra of “follow the science”, most of its adherents know little of climate science including the physics behind alternative energy or lack of same. But they also seem to know very little about economics and to be unpleasantly surprised when it or physics shakes gory locks at them.
Canada’s parachute Prime Ministerial candidate Mark Carney actually claims inefficient carbon taxes on heavy industry alone will make Canada “more competitive” in ways he doesn’t even dare try to explain.
Fake ECIU Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2025
Link to latest report: The future is green: The economic opportunities brought by the UK’s net zero economy
The net zero economy has become a significant driver of growth and innovation in the UK, achieving remarkable growth over recent years.
By Pete Chalkley, Director, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, et al., February 2025
https://ca1-eci.edcdn.com/250224-ECIU-CBIE-2024-Net-Zero-Economy-FINAL.pdf?v=1740388273
According to Energy Live News:
Gas is driving energy bills up, renewables are lowering them
The report says gas has added £3,000 to bills since the energy crisis started.
The numbers don’t lie—gas is the main reason energy bills have skyrocketed over the last four years.
That’s the view from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), who have worked out that gas price spikes will have added a staggering £3,000 to the average UK household bill since the crisis began.
That’s £750 a year, seven times the cost of supporting renewables.
“Let’s be very clear on this, it is gas that has been driving up energy bills over the past four years and it continues to do just that,” said Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the ECIU. “Families are struggling because the UK is heavily reliant on gas for both electricity generation and home heating and the price of gas is volatile.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
324 contaminants found in drinking water systems across US: Research
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 26, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5164926-contaminants-american-tap-water-research
Link to report: Tapped out: America’s drinking water and the health risks hidden behind legal limits
By Staff, Environmental Working Group, Accessed Feb 26, 2025
https://www.ewg.org/tapwater/state-of-american-drinking-water.php
From report: A groundbreaking 2019 peer-reviewed study by EWG scientists found that the toxic mixture of contaminants in U.S. drinking water could contribute to more than 100,000 cancer cases nationwide. [Boldface added]
From article: Of particular concern to the researchers was the nationwide prevalence of cancer-causing “forever chemicals,” which appeared in the drinking water of more than 143 million people. [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Where is the physical evidence that chemically inert “forever chemicals” cause cancer? In EPA’s Linear No-Threshold Model of meaningless research?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Melbourne’s Climate Doomsday Clock Vandalized
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 24, 2025
“Save NOAA Stop DOGE” Climate Protest
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 28, 2025
Link to: NOAA: A key partner in advancing offshore wind energy development
By Staff, NOAA, Accessed Feb 28, 2025
https://www.noaa.gov/offshore-wind-energy
Responsible development of offshore wind energy is critical to U.S. efforts to mitigate climate change, grow the clean energy sector and benefit from a thriving New Blue Economy.
[SEPP Comment: Doubtful if NOAA can make the wind blow 24/7, which is required for affordable, reliable energy.]
Questioning European Green
Is the ‘booming Net-zero economy’ really a key driver of growth?
By Julian Jessop, Net Zero Watch, Feb 26, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/net-zero-economy-driver-of-growth
Link to report: The future is green: the economic opportunities brought by the UK’s net zero economy
By Pete Chalkley, Director, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), February 2025
https://ca1-eci.edcdn.com/250224-ECIU-CBIE-2024-Net-Zero-Economy-FINAL.pdf?v=1740388273
From Jessop: In particular, the report claimed that the total economic value (gross value added – GVA) generated by the sector grew by 10.1% last year, and that this supported the equivalent of 951,000 full-time jobs. The energy secretary Ed Miliband added that ‘these numbers speak for themselves. Net zero is essential to growth, a strong economy and money in working people’s pockets’.
Unfortunately, the figures in the CBI report simply do not justify this spin.
For a start, there are valid questions about how the CBI has defined the ‘net zero economy’, the accounting for taxes and subsidies, and the failure to address the impacts that the rush to decarbonise the grid might be having on energy bills and energy security. But even putting these concerns aside, the whole approach is conceptually flawed.
[SEPP Comment: The ECIU report is another instance of overgeneralization. One sector, driven by subsidies and mandates, does not mean economic success for the entire country.]
Britain Is Committing “National Economic Suicide”
The birthplace of the Industrial Revolution is hurtling toward net-zero oblivion.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Feb 24,2025
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/britain-is-committing-national-economic?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=630873&post_id=157802736&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
BP Faces “Existential Crisis” After Ruinous Attempt to Go Green
By Richard Eldred, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 23, 2025
BP in crisis — The oil industry’s biggest loser on renewable energy
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 25, 2025
[SEPP Comment: “Beyond Petroleum” has retreated?]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
But apart from that…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
The New York Times “Climate Forward”, for instance, tries to explain “Why coal has been so hard to quit in the U.S.” Alas, they blame politics while insisting that “Most experts say coal is simply uneconomical.” Right. Which is why jurisdictions that turn to alternative energy have such… uh… hang on.
Sacré vert
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
Link to article: Gulf Refiners Are Balking at Watery Mexican Oil in Blow to Pemex
By Lucia Kassai, Bloomberg, Feb 10, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gulf-refiners-balking-watery-mexican-215500878.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9jbGltYXRlZGlzY3Vzc2lvbm5leHVzLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALZf7EobOgkWa5KFXhQUww20GaPCf0fyp-Jx2cTsR1nzFHY4Fe0-KMDNdTyc0_4hcKfyWPKm_0kMCeZPvO3kmtGmcXrt0V7guTl8NsUxUZjb1WGzFp66glpstHTBunX7iZmGxWnVPP91jx88WkZnYgG_yoi0If1zst7aYsMLI0ig
From Article: Flagship Maya crude is being delivered with as much as 6% of water content, or six times more than the industry standard, the people said. That means when a refiner buys a standard cargo of half a million barrels, around 30,000 barrels are water, or the equivalent to almost $2 million, according to Bloomberg calculations.
From Robson: Since he’s [PM Trudeau] meant to be gone in a month, what he thinks will be a key priority (of this outfit he won’t be presiding over) is of questionable importance. What’s also questionable is why he was Prime Minister for 10 years and relentlessly pushed wind and solar, but did nothing on nuclear power, only suddenly to realize that it might just be the answer to reliable energy with minimal GHG emissions.
Green Jobs
The Million Missing Green Jobs Have Been Found!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 24, 2025
If there is one lesson I have learnt, it is that anything emanating from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit is likely to be untrue:
“The net zero economy is not only driving environmental progress but also delivering transformative economic and social benefits across the UK”
It is not, but the CBI’s members would love to get their hands on those hundreds of millions of taxpayer money which will be doled out.
Non-Green Jobs
Worst January In Two Years For UK Car Industry
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2025
Funding Issues
Bank accounts for $20B climate program frozen amid Trump administration scrutiny
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 24, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5161849-inflation-reduction-act-climate-program-funds-frozen-epa-zeldin/amp
The program in question, which is funded by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, provides $20 billion to help finance the deployment of climate-friendly projects.
Turns Out Top Execs Of Org Picked For Billions By Biden EPA Are Big Time Democrat Donors
By Nick Pope, The Daily Caller, Feb 26, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/02/26/biden-epa-cgc-top-execs-personal-donations-democrats
Top executives of a green organization that the Biden Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) selected to receive billions in public funds have collectively made hundreds of thousands of dollars in personal political donations to Democratic candidates and organizations in recent years, a Daily Caller News Foundation review of Federal Election Commission (FEC) data found.
Biden Environmental Justice Adviser Received Millions in Taxpayer Funds After Personally Applying For EPA Grant
LaTricea Adams’s group received $20 million ‘environmental justice’ grant while she served on Biden’s Environmental Justice Advisory Council
By Thomas Catenacci, Washington Free Beacon, Feb 24, 2025
NOAA begins firing hundreds of staffers
By Rachel Frazin and Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 27, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167978-noaa-firings-probationary-workers-doge/?email=467cb6399cb7df64551775e431052b43a775c749&emaila=12a6d4d069cd56cfddaa391c24eb7042&emailb=054528e7403871c79f668e49dd3c44b1ec00c7f611bf9388f76bb2324d6ca5f3&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=02.27.25%E2%80%94%20Energy%20%26%20Environment
The Political Games Continue
The European Commission Faces Its Biggest Scandal in 20 Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2025
Press Release from Symphony Environmental:
“EU Commission NGO manipulation highlights decade-long corruption in plastic policy, says Symphony Environmental
With NGO financing from the EC coming to light, plastic policy needs greater transparency to remove corruption and confusion from legislation.”
Brussels Morning covers the story, which they call the EU’s biggest scandal in 20 years. They write:
“A few days ago, the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf uncovered findings that are now shaking the entire European Union. The European Commission has long been financially supporting non-governmental organizations (NGOs) lobbying for the green policies of former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans. Lobbyists, funded from the EU budget, were tasked with influencing politicians to push through the Green Deal. This is evidenced by secret contracts obtained by the Dutch newspaper.”
[SEPP Comment: Symphony Environmental Technologies is a UK plastic fabrication company.]
Litigation Issues
Amicus Brief Filed In Glen Oaks Village Owners v. City Of New York
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 23, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-2-23-amicus-brief-filed-in-glen-oaks-village-owners-v-city-of-new-york
Thus, we have the City mandating a huge increase in electricity demand by 2030 at the same time that the State is mandating dismantling our existing reliable electricity generation with no credible plan to replace it.
Farmers, green groups sue USDA over ‘unlawful purge’ of climate data
By Ashleigh Fields, The Hill, Feb 25, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5163917-usda-climate-data-lawsuit
The organizations involved include Earthjustice and the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, which are representing the Northeast Organic Farming Association of New York, Natural Resources Defense Council and the Environmental Working Group.
Wisconsin Groups Sue Over Privately Funded AG Lawyers
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Feb 24, 2025
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The climate scaremongers: The £100billion renewables scam (and counting)
By Paul Homewood, TCW, Feb 28, 2025
The Government is currently consulting with the industry about how the ZEV mandate is implemented, but it is absolutely clear any changes made will be purely window dressing. Meanwhile the Unite union is warning about thousands of job losses if the Government continues down its path. And a new study says vehicle manufacturers are predicted to miss ZEV new car sales targets by over 345,000 units by 2028, which would equate to fines totaling £5.1 billion.
With China already exporting cheap Evs to Europe, the UK motor industry sits between a rock and a hard place, thanks to the suicidal Net Zero agenda.
Seagreen Paid £65m To Switch Off Last Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 22, 2025
“One of Britain’s biggest wind farms was handed £65m to slash its output by nearly three quarters last year, amid warnings that the country’s ‘staggeringly inefficient’ power grid is pushing up household bills.
The Seagreen offshore wind farm in the North Sea – the largest of its kind in Scotland – had its output curtailed for 71pc of the time it was due to operate in 2024, grid data show.”
Econocide: green subsidies are hastening our energy demise
Originally published in Spectator Australia, February 2025
By Alan Moran, His Blog, feb 25, 2025
https://amoran.substack.com/p/econocide-green-subsidies-are-hastening?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1824724&post_id=157868344&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Nuclear is the best option for nations not having vast low-cost coal and gas but, tellingly, there are no aluminum or similar smelters planned anywhere in the world for nuclear-dominant electricity grids
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The Process Of Rescinding The Endangerment Finding Has Begun
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 26, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-2-26-the-process-of-rescinding-the-endangerment-finding-has-begun
White House says EPA will cut 65 percent of spending, not staff
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 27, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167068-white-house-epa-65-percent-cuts-staff-spending
Trump Teases Enormous Staff Cuts At Environmental Protection Agency
By Ireland Owens, Daily Caller, Feb 26, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/02/26/trump-signals-epa-staff-cut
Dangerous EPA GHG Endangerment Finding
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Feb 24, 2025
Much Harm and No Good from EPA Greenhouse Rule: Kill It
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Feb 26, 2025
EPA To Drop CO2 Endangerment Finding
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2025
Like dropping napalm on the whole Climate Blob: US EPA recommends dropping “endangerment finding”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 27, 2025
Energy Issues – Non-US
Net Zero Watch ridicules ‘fantasy’ Carbon Budget
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 26, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/net-zero-watch-ridicules-fantasy-carbon-budget
The Net Zero LIE! It Will DESTROY Britain’s Economy For Decades!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2025
Video: Really good interview with Prof Gordon Hughes.
I don’t know who the interviewer is, but she is extremely naive, continually saying “But the Government says!”
New German Law Mandates Energy Consumption Cuts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 22, 2025
We have just escaped the Climate and Nature Bill by the skin of the teeth, but it seems the Germans have not been so lucky.
Benny Peiser sent me an essay (translated) by Robert von Loewenstern, which tells about a new law, the “Energy Efficiency Act”, which was passed in 2023. He writes:
The crucial sentences can be found in Paragraph 4 : “The aim of this law is to reduce Germany’s final energy consumption by at least 26.5 percent by 2030 compared to 2008, to a final energy consumption of 1,867 terawatt hours.” For the period thereafter, it is planned to “reduce Germany’s final energy consumption by 45 percent by 2045 compared to 2008.”
Energy Issues — US
RGGI more than doubles electrical costs for residents and all consumer sectors
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Feb 26, 2025
When you list the states with the highest electricity prices for the residential sector, the list has the RGGI states and no surprise California.
Oh that natural gas
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
[SEPP Comment: For Massachusetts politicians natural gas is terrible, until it gets cold.]
US LNG Exports: Truth and Consequence Revisited
By Kenneth Medlock III, Baker Institute, Feb 17, 2025
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/us-lng-exports-truth-and-consequence-revisited
In general, it appears that all the DOE-commissioned studies conducted prior to 2024 use an elasticity of supply that is too small. In other words, at a given price, actual U.S. production has exceeded what was anticipated even in the high domestic resource cases.
[SEPP Comment: In other words, production is more elastic that DOE recognizes – production increases significantly with small increases in price.]
Under Extremist Legislation, New Yorkers Will Pay $3 Billion a Year More for Energy
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Feb 24, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/02/24/under_extremist_legislation_new_yorkers_will_pay_3_billion_a_year_more_for_energy_1093570.html
New Yorkers and the rest of the country have been deliberately misinformed. We have been told that wind and solar will lower our energy costs; that isn’t true. These “green” technologies cost more even with the massive national debt ballooning subsidies.
Washington’s Control of Energy
The Gulf of America is now officially open for business!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Feb 25, 2025
[SEPP Comment: A political play to avoid bothersome regulations placed on oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico by the previous administration?]
Will the President pursue grid reliability?
By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 24, 2025
https://www.cfact.org/2025/02/24/will-the-president-pursue-grid-reliability
If the President wants to fix the grid FERC is the place to start.
Unsettled Science: The Alarmists Want More Money (nope, time’s up)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Feb 26, 2025
Congress Overturns Biden’s Natural Gas Tax: A Victory for Energy Independence
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 28, 2025
Mine, Baby, Mine – Right Here in the USA!
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Feb 28, 2025
For jobs, revenue, national security, defense and medical needs; to end child labor, pollution
Keystone Pipeline Revival?
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Feb 25, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Gulf Coast refineries need to mix heavy crude with the light crude from shale. Canada can provided the heavy crude.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Shell expects 60% rise in global LNG demand by 2040 as Asia leads growth
By Marwa Rashad and Emily Chow, Reuters, Feb 25, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-expects-60-rise-global-lng-demand-by-2040-2025-02-25
No link provided, likely report: Shell LNG Outlook, 2025
By Staff, Shell Oil, February 2025
https://www.shell.com/what-we-do/oil-and-natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng/lng-outlook-2025.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Collateral Carnage at the Energy Department
By Jay Hakes, Real Clear Energy, Feb 25, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/02/25/collateral_carnage_at_the_energy_department_1093797.html
The massive axing of employees at Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration is one example of a tendency to fire now and find out what the job is later. After its rash attack, the political team found out that the agency was responsible for safeguarding the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile, as well as responding to terrorists or other adversaries with nuclear capability.
[SEPP Comment: Not surprising. The Reagan Administration was also very slow to realize that the Energy Department didn’t just regulate oil and gas prices. As it is now more than 30 years since we conducted even an underground nuclear test, it has to be said that any models purporting to represent the deterioration of materials or other problems in nuclear weapons are operating on presumptions.]
Time to Make Nuclear Energy Great Again
By Edward McGinnis, Real Clear Energy, Feb 24, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/02/24/time_to_make_nuclear_energy_great_again_1093579.html
New Record: Reactor Crosses ‘Crucial Milestone’ in Achieving Nuclear Fusion
By Staff, Agence France-Presse, Feb 22, 2025
https://www.sciencealert.com/new-record-reactor-crosses-crucial-milestone-in-achieving-nuclear-fusion
Link to press release: Nuclear fusion: WEST beats the world record for plasma duration!
By Staff, France’s Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), Feb 18, 2025
https://www.cea.fr/english/Pages/News/nuclear-fusion-west-beats-the-world-record-for-plasma-duration.aspx
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
In Texas, energy dominance’ is the solar industry’s new motto
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Feb 24, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5157343-solar-industry-texas-energy-dominance-pitch
[SEPP Comment: Discusses the spillover effects of increased solar power but does not estimate the total subsidies solar power receives. Increased solar power on the grid makes the grid less reliable.]
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Pause
By Steve Haner, WUWT, Feb 23, 2025
As low as its capacity factor might be, the 2.6-gigawatt project should run well at times. Dominion is still facing a rising wave of demand because of the data center explosion so the power will have to come from somewhere else. Again, the Virginia Clean Economy Act precludes the most logical hydrocarbon alternatives.
[SEPP Comment: In defending his position of not opposing Dominion Electric continuing its offshore projects, the author does not discuss the problems that unreliable electricity creates for other producers on the grid. It makes them less efficient, driving up costs to consumers.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation
By Roland Horne, et al., Nature review clean technology, Jan 31, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44359-024-00019-9
Geologic Hydrogen: A Game-Changer or Another Energy Mirage?
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 27, 2025
Link to paper: Model predictions of global geologic hydrogen resources
By Geoffrey S. Ellis and Sarah Gelman, AAAS Science Advances, Dec 13, 2025
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado0955
From Abstract: Knowledge of the occurrence and behavior of natural hydrogen on Earth has been combined with information from geologic analogs to construct a mass balance model to predict the resource potential.
[SEPP Comment: What knowledge of natural hydrogen on Earth?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Europe’s Battery Dilemma: Navigating Resource Dependencies in the Global Energy Transition
By Philippe Charlez, Real Clear Energy, Feb 25, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/02/25/europes_battery_dilemma_navigating_resource_dependencies_in_the_global_energy_transition_1093806.html
Today, two main battery technologies dominate the market, differing primarily in cathode composition. Europe has placed its bets on NMC (Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt) technology, prized for its superior performance but burdened by its steep costs and high consumption of critical minerals. China, on the other hand, has championed the less-performing, yet more cost-effective LFP (Lithium-Iron-Phosphate) technology, which, beyond lithium and graphite, relies on abundant materials like iron, copper and aluminum.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
BMW Pull Plug On Electric Mini
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 23, 2025
Video “Net zero trumps everything else.”
[SEPP Comment: For EVs, the great, new, green future hits reality.]
California Dreaming
California: Rise and Fall
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 24, 2025
[SEPP Comment: On the coast, ground subsidence from aquifer depletions can be addressed by sea water filtration; inland ground subsidence from aquifer depletion is a different story. See link immediately below.]
The Easy Impossible Paths to Water Abundance
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Feb 27, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7859960?e=cd9fa89d1e
The battle then turns back to the pumps. Turning them on is easy. Convincing the bureaucrats to do it is impossible.
Newsom asks Congress for almost $40B in wildfire recovery aid
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 24, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5161318-california-wildfires-recovery-funding-request-newsom
[SEPP Comment: Rewarding government incompetence?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Rallying round the red tape
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2025
“New documents reveal the extent of the Biden administration’s ‘eco grief’ workshops, in which U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service employees were encouraged to channel feelings of ecological anxiety into ‘lifesaving changes’ for the planet. The documents, obtained through an open records request by the Functional Government Initiative, show that the grief workshops were more widespread than officials acknowledged, and agency officials considered it a ‘high priority.’”
One of the weirdest things about watching Donald Trump and Elon Musk try to make the American government more efficient, which is already a very weird sentence, to find ourselves writing, is the way in which progressives in politics, the media and elsewhere have chosen the defense of expensively futile bureaucracy (even at the IRS) as the place to rally the populace.
Shell In Wonderland
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2025
The Telegraph are reporting “that Shell is exploring making natural gas from hydrogen to ship to countries around the world amid fears that surging demand in China will leave Europe short of supplies.
The process, outlined by Shell in its LNG Outlook, would see hydrogen, made using solar power, combined with carbon molecules captured from greenhouse gases in the air.
Carbon molecules would then be used to turn the hydrogen into methane or CH4, which is the same molecule as natural gas. The methane could then be frozen into synthetic LNG
“Antarctic Ice Cap Found Shrinking Toward Pole
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 26, 2025
[SEPP Comment: For over 90 years?]
Take a trip to fight climate change? Group meets in Miami to tout psychedelic solutions
By Ashley Miznazi, Phys.org, Feb 28, 2025
https://phys.org/news/2025-02-climate-group-miami-tout-psychedelic.html
[SEPP Comment: Based on their actions on reliable, affordably electricity, are too many New York and New England politicians taking “magic mushrooms”?]
ARTICLES
1. The Clean Energy Revolution Is Unstoppable
The Trump administration is determined to promote fossil fuels, but the economic and technological forces driving solar, wind and other sources are now too powerful to resist.
By Eric Beinhocker and J. Doyne Farmer, WSJ, Feb. 28, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/thecleanenergyrevolution-is-unstoppable-88af7ed5?mod=energy-oil_news_article_pos1
TWTW Summary: Discussed in the This Week section above.
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