By Vijay Jayaraj
With 1.4 billion energy-hungry citizens, India stands at the epicenter of the geopolitics of energy and climate policy. As the world’s third-largest energy consumer and projected to have the fastest growth in demand over the next two decades, the subcontinent’s choices reverberate far beyond its borders.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that India will account for a staggering 25% of growth in global energy demand by 2040, driven by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and an expanding middle class.
By 2050, India’s electricity demand alone could represent a major chunk of the world’s total, while its appetite for oil and natural gas is set to soar, the former potentially adding many million barrels per day to global oil consumption. Not to forget, the nation’s ambitions for technological development — particularly of data centers — promise to push the requirement for energy to stratospheric levels.
With the reemergence of a hydrocarbon-friendly administration in Donald Trump’s second term, India sees a golden opportunity to bolster its energy security. Trump’s revival of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports and his ethos of “drill, baby, drill” align perfectly with India’s unapologetic pursuit of reliable, affordable energy.
Far from bending to the green agenda peddled at United Nations summits, India is now betting big on U.S. hydrocarbons — LNG, West Texas Intermediate crude, and more — to fuel its economic ascent.
India’s Reacts to Trump’s LNG Revival
The Trump administration’s decision to lift the Biden-era ban on LNG export permits has opened opportunities for India. “Their (Washington’s) decision to lift the ban will improve LNG supply, and we will revive our plans to either buy a stake or buy U.S. LNG under long-term deals,” declared the chairman of GAIL, Ltd., India’s state-owned gas utility.
Already the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer, India aims to boost natural gas’s share in its energy mix from less than 7% to 15% by 2030 — a target that demands a doubling of LNG imports to roughly 65 billion cubic meters annually, according to the IEA. Domestic production being unable to keep pace with demand, U.S. LNG is poised to fill the gap.
With respect to crude oil, India’s strategic calculus is equally evident. To mitigate trade imbalances and foster stronger bilateral ties, New Delhi is contemplating a fixed quota for importing U.S. crude, specifically Western Texas Intermediate product.
India imports 88% of its crude oil, a dependency that exposes it to global price volatility and geopolitical whims. In 2023-24, imports of crude from the U.S. were ranked fifth, trailing Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Sourced primarily from Texas’s Permian Basin, American oil could displace one of the top four, which would count as a score for Trump’s “America First” agenda.
Why U.S. Over Venezuela, Iran and Russia?
India’s pivot to U.S. hydrocarbons is not only about seizing opportunity but also about dodging risk. Three traditional suppliers — Venezuela, Iran and Russia — pose headaches that American energy sidesteps.
Take Venezuela: Once a significant supplier to India, its shipments have dwindled under U.S. sanctions since 2019. Hopes of a revival were in the cards as imports surged to a four-year peak in 2024. However, Trump is now planning to impose a 25% tariff on exports from any nation buying Venezuelan oil.
Instability of Iranian supplies is equally unappealing. With Middle East tensions simmering, India can ill afford an entanglement in American-led “maximum pressure” campaigns against the Iranian nuclear program.
Russia, meanwhile, is a complex equation for India. Moscow has been a lifeline since 2022, supplying 40% of India’s crude at steep discounts after imposition of Western sanctions over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Imports hit 1.91 million barrels per day in the first half of India’s 2024-25 fiscal year.
But geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks loom large. A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station in February disrupted flows via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, cutting global supply from Russia by up to 380,000 barrels daily.
The U.S., by contrast, offers stability. No sanctions, no drone strikes — just a flood of oil and gas from a partner eager to sell.
For a nation where 800 million still use biomass such as wood and animal dung for cooking and per capita electricity consumption is a third of the global average, energy security is non-negotiable while “climate guilt” is a foolish distraction. Energy poverty kills more than does an imaginary climate crisis.
Meanwhile, Trump’s vision for development of American energy offers India a supercharger for its economy — exactly opposite the hollow promises of climate politics.
This commentary was first published at American Thinker on March 27, 2025.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.
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