Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach (still banned from X aka Twitter, see here)
The most excellent reef and ocean scientist Jennifer Marohazy put up a Facebook post recently on the lack of much effect on the atmosphere CO2 levels from the 2020 emissions drop due to COVID. She says this shows human CO2 emissions have very little effect on atmospheric CO2 levels. However, I fear her graph is greatly misleading.
The problem is that she is showing the full range of two related but very different variables. Let me see if I can clear up the confusion.
To begin with, we need to change the CO2 emissions to parts per million by volume (ppmv) of CO2. To do that, we need to divide the gigatonnage (billions of tonnes) of CO2 by 8.71 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions per each 1 ppmv increase.
Next, we need to account for the fact that the earth is constantly absorbing and sequestering CO2. I find there’s an excellent fit to be had by using the following procedure. The underlying assumption is that every year, a certain small percentage of “excess” airborne CO2 is being sequestered by natural processes, with the rest of prior emissions remaining in the air. What is “excess CO2“? Well, it is the amount in excess of some undetermined baseline, which we expect to be on the order of the historical value of about 285 ppmv.
So I set up an Excel spreadsheet to use Solver to search for the value of the unknown percentage which remains after the ongoing sequestration, as well as the value of the unknown baseline, that give the best fit to the actual airborne CO2. You can download my spreadsheet here, it’s only 23 kbytes. I get the following values:
Unknown baseline: best fit = 286.8 ppmv
Given that the fitting process could have come up with a very wide range of values, that is a very good indication that atmospheric CO2 levels are indeed related to human emissions.
Unknown percentage remaining after each year’s sequestration: best fit = 98.1%
And here is what those values give as a result. Remember, I’m calculating the best fit of human emissions to the actual airborne CO2 values using just two fitted variables—the amount remaining after annual sequestration, and the pre-industrial baseline.
Now, on my planet at least, that’s a very good fit. At all points, it’s within 1.5 ppmv of observations, and the R2 of the estimate and the observations is 0.997
A couple of comments on that. First, for a two-parameter fit between emissions and CO2 level, with one of the fitted parameters coming out very near the expected value, that seems clear evidence that the rise in CO2 levels is MAINLY a result of human emissions.
I say “mainly” because as you note, the observed CO2 level goes both above and below the estimate. I assume this is because of changes in both emissions and sequestration rates.
Now, as you can see, Jennifer is right that the estimate for the time of the dip due to COVID is slightly below the actual values. How much? The largest difference is the year after COVID, when observations are a whopping 0.7 ppmv above the value estimated from the emissions … be still my beating heart.
However, the same is true during a number of periods in the record.
Why doesn’t the COVID drop make much difference? Four reasons.
First, the e-folding time “tau” for the slow decay of a pulse of CO2 is ~ 50 years, so any year is greatly affected by the previous years.
Second, the drop in the emissions was small, only about 5%. Such small changes occur throughout the emissions record, and are smoothed over by the natural process of sequestration.
Third, the emissions dip was short, only one year long, with the next year returning to normal amounts.
Fourth, there are other factors at play, changes in natural emissions and sequestrations.
In closing, folks may ask about “tau”, the time constant being only 50 years when the scientific solons say excess CO2 remains in the air for hundreds and hundreds of years. So are they correct? Well … yes …and no. Excess CO2 remains, just not very much. Given the annual decay rate calculated above, .981, here’s how that plays out for the excess carbon.
(Yes, I know that’s different from what the standard “Bern Model” of CO2 sez … see my post on that model, including the previous post linked therein.)
My best wishes to Jennifer Marohazy despite her claims in this one case—she’s a most valuable and insightful scientist.
==========
Me, I’m not only in the very remote Solomon Islands near the Equator, north of Australia, where I worked for eight most wonderful years. I’m in the even more remote Western Province of the Solos, chewing betel nut with lime and leaf, and having a great time. I also, for the first time in three weeks, have reasonable Internet. Why?
My friend with whom I’m staying has Starlink. So for all you Elon haters out there, he’s done a huge service for mankind.
Best of the South Pacific to all, going scuba diving tomorrow, back to the US next week.
w.
AS IS MY CUSTOM, I ask that when you comment you quote the EXACT WORDS you are discussing. It avoids endless misunderstandings.
Related
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
ADVERTISEMENT:
pernahkah, denger semboyan “raja slot Kalau belum siap-siap cinta? sama konsep, slot gacor jatuh merupakan slots selalu ini. memberi win mesin Ya yang mesin-mesin disebut sebagai. jagoannya, tuk ini bisa bawa pulang hasil. tapi cemana caranya jumpain raja lot, benar sih Tenang Bro and Sis bahas yang santai? saja di tempat ini, kita Game terpercaya saat sekarang
hanya satu berada yaitu pasti memberikan ROI Indonesia terbaik Daftarkanlah dengan imbal hasil terbesar
Daftarkanlah dengan di :
Informasi mengenai KING SLOT, Segera Daftar Bersama king selot terbaik dan terpercaya no satu di Indonesia. Boleh mendaftar melalui sini king slot serta memberikan hasil kembali yang paling tinggi saat sekarang ini hanyalah KING SLOT atau Raja slot paling gacor, gilak dan gaco saat sekarang di Indonesia melalui program return tinggi di kingselot serta pg king slot
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
situs slot terbaru
situs slot terbaru permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
slot terbaru
slot terbaru permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
soda96 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama soda96.com
sparta88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sparta88.biz
sugesbola88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sugesbola88.org
tektok7777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama tektok7777.com
tektok88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama tektok88.biz
toinktoto88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama toinktoto88.com
tokek888slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama tokek888slot.com
topslot888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama topslot888.biz
tuanslot888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama tuanslot888.club
uang88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama uang88.biz
uang8888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama uang8888.com
userslot88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama userslot88.info
uus88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama uus88.biz
waslot88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama waslot88.asia
wayantogel88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama wayantogel88.com
zona666 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama zona666.biz
zona88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama zona88.biz
slot96 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama slot96.biz
arjuna69 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama arjuna69.com
hqtoto88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama hqtoto88.com
bangshun88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama bangshun88.com
btc999 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama btc999.org
supraslot888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama supraslot888.net
sortoto88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sortoto88.net
logamtoto88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama logamtoto88.net
goslot777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama goslot777.info
gebyar88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gebyar88.biz
botak88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama botak88.biz
ibis88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama ibis88.asia
autobot777slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama autobot777slot.com
jwmarriott88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jwmarriott88.com
reddoorz88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama reddoorz88.com
hotelharris88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama hotelharris88.com
novotel88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama novotel88.com
orientalplay88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama orientalplay88.com
oyo88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama oyo88.live
agoda88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama agoda88.asia
tiket88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama tiket88.asia
santika88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama santika88.org
grandaston88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama grandaston88.com
booking88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama booking88.org
grandmercure88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama grandmercure88.com
tripadvisor88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama tripadvisor88.com
hotelmulia88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama hotelmulia88.com
aryaduta88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama aryaduta88.com
shangrila88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama shangrila88.com
holidayinn88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama holidayinn88.com
antam88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama antam88.info
