Russia and Ukraine have agreed to cease fighting in the Black Sea in a U.S.-brokered deal, but it remains unclear whether the agreement can come into force soon — if at all.
Russia had a major caveat: it would abide by the deal only after various restrictions were removed from its agricultural exports. The penalties were imposed by the United States and the European Union, and removing them would be an arduous process.
Kyiv and Moscow also appear to have different interpretations of the agreement announced on Tuesday. Russia framed it as a way to revive a 2022 U.N.-backed deal giving it some control over commercial shipping through the sea. Kyiv, however, insisted that it would not allow the Russian Navy back into the western Black Sea, which Ukraine uses at its main seaborne export route.
Underscoring the mistrust between the two countries, each side accused the other of breaching the truce on Wednesday. Ukraine reported an attack on its port city of Mykolaiv, while Moscow said it shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea.
Russia’s conditions highlighted how it is in no hurry to end the war. With a sympathetic administration in the White House and as its forces have the upper hand on the battlefield, Moscow has been determined to get as many concessions as possible.
What were Russia’s terms?
The Kremlin said it would not agree to a maritime cease-fire deal unless its state agriculture bank and other financial institutions involved in the trade of food and fertilizers were reconnected to the international payment system known as Swift.
The system has its headquarters in Belgium, meaning that the United States would need to press European regulators to agree. In a statement about the deal, the White House pledged that it would “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports.”
Moscow said it also wanted Western companies to restore deliveries of agricultural equipment to Russia and sanctions removed against its companies, ships and insurers involved in the food and fertilizer trade.
Russia says its exports of grain and fertilizers reached $45 billion in 2023. Even during the war, Russia has been exporting record-high volumes of grain and fertilizers, said Andrei Sizov, director of SovEcon, a Russian consultancy.
If sanctions were lifted against a Russian state bank, the Kremlin could use it for other transactions, too, said Aleksandr Kolyandr, a Russia analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“The minute you have a sanctions-free bank, you can use it for whatever you want,” Mr. Kolyandr said. “It can be an instrument to crack the sanctions regime,” he said, but “it is much easier to monitor just one bank.”
What is Ukraine’s position?
While Kyiv said it would comply with the maritime cease-fire, it remains skeptical about Moscow’s intentions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said on Tuesday that Russia’s demand for lifting sanctions showed that “they are already trying to distort agreements.”
Mr. Zelensky also said the U.S. commitment to help bolster Russian agricultural exports was “a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions.”
Given Russia’s demands and the differing interpretations both sides have of the deal, it remains unclear what Ukraine stand to gain. Experts note the White House did not say whether the deal would protect Ukrainian ports from Russian attacks and enable the reopening of the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson — two demands that Ukraine had pushed for during negotiations.
Kyiv also has little interest in returning to the 2022 U.N.-backed agreement that Russia wants to revive. The deal allowed Ukraine to export its grain through an agreed upon Black Sea corridor, and Russia to inspect all commercial ships to ensure that they did not carry weapons.
But Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, said the inspections delayed exports so much that it made the route unprofitable.
After Russia backed out of the deal, Ukraine secured its own shipping corridor by pushing the Russian Navy out of the western parts of the Black Sea. That allowed seaborne grain exports to return to near-prewar levels.
What may happen next?
Last week, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia agreed to halt attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days. Ukraine, which has been in favor of a full immediate cease-fire, followed suit. Both countries reaffirmed on Tuesday their commitment to institute a 30-day moratorium on energy strikes.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin published a list of facilities that fall under the moratorium. The list includes oil refineries, pipelines and storage facilities, nuclear plants, hydroelectric dams and energy transmission infrastructure.
But both sides have traded accusations of attacks against each other’s power grid over the past week, and it was unclear whether they could find common ground soon. The situation with the energy cease-fire highlighted how Moscow has been willing to drag the talks, portraying itself as open to negotiations but making no major concessions.
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said on Tuesday that “additional technical consultations” would have to be held as soon as possible to effectively carry out the energy and maritime agreements.
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