Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
Global Northern Hemisphere data from Colorado State University for the year 2024 hurricane season shows that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for this latest season of 455.1 is only 78.6% of “normal” (lower than the 30-year 1991-2020 Climatology hurricane storm season average of 579.2 as presented in the graph below with data through December 31, 2024) and less than the year 2023 value of 636.6 (as presented in the table below).
The highest ACE value measured for the Northern Hemisphere oceans over the 1991 to 2020 Climatology period was 880.3 in 1992 (as presented in the table below) nearly double the 2024 ACE measured outcome.
These outcomes clearly dispute and invalidate decades long flawed and contrived climate alarmists claims that these global storms are growing stronger and more intense because of man-made climate change.
Additionally, this latest year end data (presented below) shows that measured ACE values as well as data for numbers of both Major Hurricane and Hurricane outcomes (as presented in the table and 3 graphs below with these graphs displaying the period 1991 through 2023) have no consistently rising trends over the 30-year climatology period between 1990 to 2020.
Furthermore, the table shows year 2024 values for these measures are significantly lower than prior highest year measurements occurring (455.1 ACE in 2024 versus 880.3 in 1992, 17 in 2024 versus 31 in 2015 for number of major hurricanes and 32 in 2024 versus 44 in 1992 for number of hurricanes) during this climatology period. Also, the 17 major hurricane occurrences in 2024 were exceeded in 18 other years during the Climatology period and the 32 hurricanes occurrences in 2024 were exceeded in 19 other years during this 1990 to 2020 period as well.
The perspectives noted above regarding the Global Northern Hemisphere Climatology outcomes for ACE, Major Hurricanes and Hurricanes are also reflected in the climatological data for the Northeast Pacific Ocean Region, Northwest Pacific Ocean Region and North Indian Ocean Region.
The two North Pacific Ocean regions have nearly twice the ocean surface area (31.9 million square miles) compared to the North Atlantic Ocean (16 million square miles). Including the North Indian Ocean Region with the two Pacific Regions results in an ocean area accounting for about 70% of the Global Northern Hemisphere hurricane ocean surface area represented in the Colorado State University Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone statistical data analysis.
Provided below are the Climatology data for each of these three regions (Pacific Northeast Ocean, Pacific Northwest Ocean and North Indian Ocean) with the year 2024 ACE outcomes shown to be far below the “normal” value at only 61.8%, 68.1% and 30.9% respectively of the 1991 to 2020 Climatology average values.
These results make a complete mockery of the climate alarmist purely politically contrived claims that man-made climate change is driving increasing hurricane strength and intensity around the world.
Provided below are Colorado State University Tables for the Pacific Northeast Region, Pacific Northwest Region and North Indian Region (respectively) for the 1991 to 2020 Climatology period that include data on ACE, Major Hurricane and Hurricane yearly outcomes during this period for each region.
The data for the Pacific Northeast Region show that the year 2024 values for ACE, Major Hurricanes and Hurricanes are significantly lower than prior highest year measurements occurring (82 ACE in 2024 vs 294.3 in 1992, 3 in 2024 vs 11 in 2015 for major hurricanes and 5 in 2024 vs 16 in 2015, 2014 and 1992 for hurricanes) during this climatology period.
The data for the Pacific Northwest Region show that the year 2024 values for ACE, Major Hurricanes and Hurricanes are significantly lower than prior highest year measurements occurring (204 ACE in 2024 vs 570.4 in 1997, 9 in 2024 vs 16 in 2015 for major hurricanes and 15 in 2024 vs 23 in 1997 for hurricanes) during this climatology period.
The data for the North Indian Ocean Region show that the year 2024 values for ACE, Major Hurricanes and Hurricanes are significantly lower than prior highest year measurements occurring (7.5 ACE in 2024 vs 93 in 2019, 0 in 2024 vs 5 in 2019 for major hurricanes and 1 in 2024 vs 6 in 2019 for hurricanes) during this climatology period.
Without further belaboring the point, the values of ACE, major hurricanes and hurricanes occurring in each of these 3 global regions in 2024 is exceeded numerous additional times during the chronological period as was addressed in the data presented above for the entire Northern Hemisphere Region.
The data for the year 2024 North Atlantic region ACE is provided below showing that this year’s value of 161.6 exceeded the 1991 to 2020 Climatology value average of 122.5 which is 31.8% above “normal”.
The highest ACE values during the Climatology period for the North Atlantic Region (presented in the data table below) are 227.1, 226.9, 245.3 and 224.9 occurring in years 1995, 2004, 2005 and 2007 respectively.
The 2024 ACE value is exceeded by 10 other years during the Climatology period.
The 5 major hurricanes occurring in 2024 are matched or exceeded by 10 other years with the maximum being 7 major hurricanes in 2005 during the Climatology period. The 11 hurricanes occurring in 2024 are matched or exceeded by 4 other years during the Climatology period with highest value being 15 in 2005.
The year 2024 Climatology data compiled by Colorado State University for the North Atlantic Region, as shown above, establishes that there were no record high measured outcomes for ACE, Major Hurricanes, Major Hurricane Days, Hurricanes, Hurricane Days, Named Storms or Named Storms Days in that year.
This outcome occurred despite the record high hurricane hype provided by the clueless and incompetent climate alarmist election year Democrat politicians and media.
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